1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Karlsruher SC

1. FC Kaiserslautern

18:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff

Karlsruher SC

Likely score21
Expected goals2.361.03
Both teams score
Yes58.8%
No41.2%
Total goals
Over 2.565.7%
Under 2.534.3%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw85.7%
Draw or away33.8%
Probability margin
Probability margin46.7%
Non-leading outcomes33.8%
Published
Training cutoff
Training matches
315 · Kaiserslautern 17 · Karlsruhe 17
Data quality
Full model sample · High separation

Why the home win is largest

Outcome separation

The leading outcome is Home win at 66.2%, 46.7% ahead of the next outcome.

Expected-goal balance

The model projects 2.36 goals for Kaiserslautern and 1.03 for Karlsruhe.

Recent evidence

Across the displayed sample, Kaiserslautern are 2-1-2 with a 0 goal difference; Karlsruhe are 2-1-2 with a -1 goal difference.

Top five scorelines

219.7%
209.4%
118.9%
317.6%
307.4%

Recent form

TeamLast fiveMPWDLGFGA
Kaiserslautern521233
Karlsruhe521289

Published model snapshot

This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.

Training cutoff
Training matches
315 · Kaiserslautern 17 · Karlsruhe 17
Data quality
Full model sample
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation