1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Karlsruher SC
1. FC Kaiserslautern
18:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Karlsruher SC
66%19%14%
Likely score2–1
Expected goals2.36 – 1.03
Both teams score
Yes58.8%
No41.2%
Total goals
Over 2.565.7%
Under 2.534.3%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw85.7%
Draw or away33.8%
Probability margin
Probability margin46.7%
Non-leading outcomes33.8%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Kaiserslautern 17 · Karlsruhe 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 66.2%, 46.7% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.36 goals for Kaiserslautern and 1.03 for Karlsruhe.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Kaiserslautern are 2-1-2 with a 0 goal difference; Karlsruhe are 2-1-2 with a -1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Karlsruhe | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation