How the model is doing
Every published prediction stays in the record.
This backtest simulates historical fixtures in chronological order. Its forecasts were never published publicly and are separate from the immutable published record.
Log Loss1.044Equal 33% baseline: 1.099
Brier Score0.628Equal 33% baseline: 0.667
RPS0.223Equal 33% baseline: 0.222
Top-outcome accuracy48.2%Equal 33% baseline: 33.3%
Matches scored987Evaluated matches
Calibration
How scoring worksView calibration data
| Predicted | Observed | Events |
|---|---|---|
| 16% | 19% | 290 |
| 28% | 28% | 1872 |
| 48% | 47% | 652 |
| 66% | 60% | 136 |
| 84% | 73% | 11 |