PredictMargin

How the model is doing

Every published prediction stays in the record.

Published recordEstablished evaluation sample

Only predictions published before kickoff enter this record. Past probabilities are never rewritten.

Log Loss1.054Equal 33% baseline: 1.099
Brier Score0.634Equal 33% baseline: 0.667
RPS0.229Equal 33% baseline: 0.240
Top-outcome accuracy43.3%Equal 33% baseline: 33.3%
Matches scored141Published forecasts

Calibration

How scoring works
Predicted probability compared with observed frequency0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%Predicted probabilityObserved frequency
View calibration data
PredictedObservedEvents
16%26%43
29%30%268
48%40%93
68%67%18
85%100%1

Results over time

Model scores over the evaluation period0.00.51.008-2909-0609-1509-25
View score trend data
PeriodLog LossBrier ScoreRPS
08-291.1020.6650.245
09-061.0760.6530.253
09-151.0080.6000.209
09-251.0280.6180.208

Prediction archive

Evaluated through: 2026-09-25
DateMatchPublishedResultScore
Sep 25, 2026TSV Havelse vs Fortuna KölnAway1–3
Sep 20, 2026SV Wehen Wiesbaden vs MSV DuisburgAway1–4
Sep 20, 2026SC Paderborn 07 vs TSG HoffenheimHome3–1
Sep 20, 2026FC Schalke 04 vs SV 07 ElversbergDraw0–0
Sep 20, 2026SV Waldhof Mannheim vs Preußen MünsterHome2–0
Sep 20, 2026Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB LeipzigHome2–0
Sep 20, 2026Rot-Weiss Essen vs Hansa RostockDraw1–1
Sep 20, 2026Energie Cottbus vs FC St. PauliDraw1–1
Sep 20, 2026DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. FC Heidenheim 1846Draw2–2
Sep 20, 2026Hannover 96 vs VfL BochumHome2–1
Sep 19, 2026Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSCAway1–2
Sep 19, 2026VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia DortmundAway0–1
Sep 19, 20261. FC Saarbrücken vs SG Sonnenhof GroßaspachHome2–1
Sep 19, 2026SV Werder Bremen vs FC AugsburgHome3–2
Sep 19, 2026Hamburger SV vs 1. FC KölnHome2–1
Sep 19, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FSV Mainz 05Away3–4
Sep 19, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC FreiburgDraw2–2
Sep 19, 2026TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II vs SV MeppenHome1–0
Sep 19, 2026VfB Stuttgart II vs Jahn RegensburgDraw3–3
Sep 19, 2026Viktoria Köln vs FC Ingolstadt 04Home3–0
Sep 19, 2026Alemannia Aachen vs Fortuna DüsseldorfHome1–0
Sep 19, 2026Holstein Kiel vs VfL OsnabrückDraw1–1
Sep 19, 2026Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC NürnbergAway0–1
Sep 19, 20261. FC Kaiserslautern vs Eintracht BraunschweigHome1–0
Sep 18, 2026FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Union BerlinHome7–0
Sep 18, 2026SC Verl vs Würzburger KickersHome2–1
Sep 18, 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC MagdeburgDraw1–1
Sep 18, 2026VfL Wolfsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98Home5–1
Sep 16, 2026Fortuna Köln vs SV Wehen WiesbadenAway0–2
Sep 16, 2026SV Waldhof Mannheim vs Rot-Weiss EssenAway1–2
Sep 16, 2026Hansa Rostock vs VfB Stuttgart IIHome3–2
Sep 16, 2026Preußen Münster vs 1. FC SaarbrückenDraw3–3
Sep 16, 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IIAway1–2
Sep 15, 2026Würzburger Kickers vs Alemannia AachenHome1–0
Sep 15, 2026SG Sonnenhof Großaspach vs SC VerlDraw1–1
Sep 15, 2026SV Meppen vs Viktoria KölnAway1–3
Sep 15, 2026Jahn Regensburg vs Fortuna DüsseldorfAway1–2
Sep 15, 2026MSV Duisburg vs TSV HavelseHome2–1
Sep 13, 2026TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II vs Fortuna KölnDraw2–2
Sep 13, 2026SV 07 Elversberg vs FC Bayern MünchenAway1–2
Sep 13, 2026SV Wehen Wiesbaden vs SV Waldhof MannheimAway0–1
Sep 13, 2026RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SVHome5–0
Sep 13, 2026VfB Stuttgart II vs Preußen MünsterAway1–2
Sep 13, 2026VfL Osnabrück vs Hertha BSCAway1–3
Sep 13, 2026Karlsruher SC vs Energie CottbusAway0–3
Sep 13, 20261. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Holstein KielHome1–0
Sep 12, 2026FC St. Pauli vs VfL WolfsburgHome1–0
Sep 12, 20261. FC Köln vs SV Werder BremenDraw1–1
Sep 12, 2026Alemannia Aachen vs Jahn RegensburgDraw2–2
Sep 12, 20261. FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht FrankfurtAway1–3
Sep 12, 2026FC Augsburg vs Bayer 04 LeverkusenDraw2–2
Sep 12, 2026SC Freiburg vs Borussia MönchengladbachHome5–0
Sep 12, 2026TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB StuttgartHome2–1
Sep 12, 2026Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07Home3–0
Sep 12, 2026TSV Havelse vs SG Sonnenhof GroßaspachDraw2–2
Sep 12, 20261. FC Saarbrücken vs FC Ingolstadt 04Away0–1
Sep 12, 2026SC Verl vs SV MeppenHome2–1
Sep 12, 2026Rot-Weiss Essen vs Würzburger KickersHome6–2
Sep 12, 2026Fortuna Düsseldorf vs MSV DuisburgHome2–1
Sep 12, 2026Eintracht Braunschweig vs Dynamo DresdenDraw2–2
Sep 12, 20261. FC Magdeburg vs 1. FC KaiserslauternHome3–0
Sep 12, 2026VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther FürthDraw1–1
Sep 11, 20261. FC Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04Away1–3
Sep 11, 2026Viktoria Köln vs Hansa RostockHome4–0
Sep 11, 20261. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96Home2–1
Sep 11, 2026SV Darmstadt 98 vs DSC Arminia BielefeldHome2–1
Sep 6, 2026Fortuna Köln vs Fortuna DüsseldorfDraw0–0
Sep 6, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC AugsburgAway1–4
Sep 6, 2026SG Sonnenhof Großaspach vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IIHome1–0
Sep 6, 2026Hamburger SV vs 1. FSV Mainz 05Away0–5
Sep 6, 2026Würzburger Kickers vs VfB Stuttgart IIAway1–2
Sep 6, 2026VfL Osnabrück vs Eintracht BraunschweigHome3–1
Sep 6, 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim 1846Away0–1
Sep 6, 2026Hertha BSC vs 1. FC MagdeburgHome2–1
Sep 5, 2026Dynamo Dresden vs VfL BochumAway1–2
Sep 5, 2026FC Schalke 04 vs FC Bayern MünchenDraw0–0
Sep 5, 2026Rot-Weiss Essen vs Viktoria KölnHome1–0
Sep 5, 2026SC Paderborn 07 vs SC FreiburgAway0–1
Sep 5, 2026SV Werder Bremen vs RB LeipzigHome3–1
Sep 5, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV 07 ElversbergAway3–4
Sep 5, 2026Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union BerlinHome4–0
Sep 5, 2026TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia DortmundAway2–3
Sep 5, 2026SV Meppen vs 1. FC SaarbrückenAway1–6
Sep 5, 2026Jahn Regensburg vs MSV DuisburgAway1–2
Sep 5, 2026SV Waldhof Mannheim vs SC VerlAway0–1
Sep 5, 2026Preußen Münster vs TSV HavelseHome2–1
Sep 5, 2026Hansa Rostock vs SV Wehen WiesbadenDraw1–1
Sep 5, 2026Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC NürnbergDraw2–2
Sep 5, 20261. FC Kaiserslautern vs SV Darmstadt 98Home3–0
Sep 5, 2026VfL Wolfsburg vs Energie CottbusDraw4–4
Sep 4, 2026VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC KölnHome4–1
Sep 4, 2026FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Alemannia AachenAway0–3
Sep 4, 2026DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. PauliDraw2–2
Sep 4, 2026Hannover 96 vs Karlsruher SCDraw2–2
Aug 30, 2026Viktoria Köln vs Preußen MünsterHome4–1
Aug 30, 2026FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04Home3–0
Aug 30, 2026TSV Havelse vs SV Waldhof MannheimHome3–2
Aug 30, 2026SC Freiburg vs SV Werder BremenHome4–1
Aug 30, 20261. FC Saarbrücken vs Hansa RostockAway2–4
Aug 30, 20261. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein KielHome2–0
Aug 30, 2026SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hannover 96Away0–1
Aug 30, 2026FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC KaiserslauternAway1–2
Aug 29, 20261. FC Nürnberg vs DSC Arminia BielefeldHome4–1
Aug 29, 2026Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SVHome2–0
Aug 29, 2026TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II vs Jahn RegensburgHome5–1
Aug 29, 2026SV 07 Elversberg vs Bayer 04 LeverkusenHome3–2
Aug 29, 20261. FC Köln vs TSG HoffenheimHome3–2
Aug 29, 20261. FC Union Berlin vs Eintracht FrankfurtDraw3–3
Aug 29, 20261. FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07Draw0–0
Aug 29, 2026RB Leipzig vs Borussia MönchengladbachHome3–0
Aug 29, 2026SG Sonnenhof Großaspach vs FC Ingolstadt 04Away0–2
Aug 29, 2026SV Wehen Wiesbaden vs Rot-Weiss EssenDraw0–0
Aug 29, 2026SC Verl vs Fortuna KölnAway1–2
Aug 29, 2026Alemannia Aachen vs SV MeppenAway0–3
Aug 29, 2026MSV Duisburg vs Würzburger KickersHome3–0
Aug 29, 2026Energie Cottbus vs SpVgg Greuther FürthAway3–4
Aug 29, 2026Karlsruher SC vs VfL WolfsburgAway2–5
Aug 29, 20261. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs Dynamo DresdenHome5–3
Aug 28, 2026FC Bayern München vs VfB StuttgartHome5–1
Aug 28, 2026Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfB Stuttgart IIHome1–0
Aug 28, 2026Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSCAway3–5
Aug 28, 2026VfL Bochum vs VfL OsnabrückAway0–1
Aug 16, 2026VfB Stuttgart II vs Viktoria KölnAway1–3
Aug 16, 2026Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC SaarbrückenAway0–1
Aug 16, 2026Hansa Rostock vs SV Waldhof MannheimDraw3–3
Aug 16, 2026DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs Energie CottbusHome3–0
Aug 16, 2026Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98Home1–0
Aug 16, 2026Hannover 96 vs VfL WolfsburgAway0–1
Aug 15, 20261. FC Kaiserslautern vs Karlsruher SCDraw0–0
Aug 15, 2026SC Verl vs MSV DuisburgAway2–4
Aug 15, 2026SV Meppen vs SG Sonnenhof GroßaspachHome2–0
Aug 15, 2026Fortuna Köln vs Alemannia AachenDraw1–1
Aug 15, 2026Rot-Weiss Essen vs TSV HavelseHome1–0
Aug 15, 2026Preußen Münster vs FC Ingolstadt 04Draw1–1
Aug 15, 2026Fortuna Düsseldorf vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim IIAway0–2
Aug 15, 2026VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC MagdeburgAway0–3
Aug 15, 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC NürnbergAway2–4
Aug 15, 2026Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Heidenheim 1846Home4–1
Aug 14, 2026Würzburger Kickers vs SV Wehen WiesbadenHome4–0
Aug 14, 2026Eintracht Braunschweig vs VfL BochumAway0–1
Aug 14, 2026Holstein Kiel vs FC St. PauliDraw2–2