1. FC Kaiserslautern vs VfL Bochum
1. FC Kaiserslautern
11:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
VfL Bochum
55%26%19%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.71 – 0.91
Both teams score
Yes49.9%
No50.1%
Total goals
Over 2.548.6%
Under 2.551.4%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw81%
Draw or away44.7%
Probability margin
Probability margin29.6%
Non-leading outcomes44.7%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 360 · Kaiserslautern 20 · Bochum 20
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 55.3%, 29.6% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.71 goals for Kaiserslautern and 0.91 for Bochum.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Kaiserslautern are 3-1-1 with a +2 goal difference; Bochum are 2-1-2 with a 0 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | |
| Bochum | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation