1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
1. FC Köln
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Borussia Mönchengladbach
52%24%24%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.88 – 1.22
Both teams score
Yes60.5%
No39.6%
Total goals
Over 2.559.8%
Under 2.540.2%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw76.3%
Draw or away47.9%
Probability margin
Probability margin28%
Non-leading outcomes47.9%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 342 · Köln 19 · Gladbach 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 52.1%, 28% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.88 goals for Köln and 1.22 for Gladbach.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Köln are 1-1-3 with a -7 goal difference; Gladbach are 1-0-4 with a -6 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Köln | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | |
| Gladbach | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 16 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation