1. FC Köln vs SV Werder Bremen
1. FC Köln
16:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
SV Werder Bremen
45%25%29%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.71 – 1.34
Both teams score
Yes61.3%
No38.7%
Total goals
Over 2.558.8%
Under 2.541.2%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw70.8%
Draw or away54.5%
Probability margin
Probability margin16.3%
Non-leading outcomes54.5%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Köln 17 · Bremen 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 45.5%, 16.3% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.71 goals for Köln and 1.34 for Bremen.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Köln are 1-1-3 with a -8 goal difference; Bremen are 1-0-4 with a -6 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Köln | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 | |
| Bremen | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 11 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation