1. FC Köln vs TSG Hoffenheim
1. FC Köln
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
TSG Hoffenheim
35%23%42%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.80 – 1.97
Both teams score
Yes72.5%
No27.5%
Total goals
Over 2.572.7%
Under 2.527.3%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw58%
Draw or away64.6%
Probability margin
Probability margin6.6%
Non-leading outcomes58%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Köln 17 · Hoffenheim 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 42%, 6.6% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.80 goals for Köln and 1.97 for Hoffenheim.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Köln are 0-2-3 with a -7 goal difference; Hoffenheim are 3-1-1 with a -1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Köln | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | |
| Hoffenheim | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation