1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel Probability & Forecast

1. FC Magdeburg

11:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff

Holstein Kiel

31%25%45%

Likely score1–1

Expected goals1.46 – 1.79

Both teams score

Yes64.7%

No35.3%

Total goals

Over 2.562.9%

Under 2.537.1%

Two-outcome combinations

Home or draw55.3%

Draw or away69.2%

Probability margin

Probability margin13.9%

Non-leading outcomes55.3%

Published: Aug 11, 2026, 5:50 PM UTC
Training cutoff: Aug 9, 2026
Training matches: 315 · Magdeburg 18 · Kiel 18
Data quality: Full model sample · Moderate separation

Why the away win is largest

Outcome separation

The leading outcome is Away win at 44.7%, 13.9% ahead of the next outcome.

Expected-goal balance

The model projects 1.46 goals for Magdeburg and 1.79 for Kiel.

Recent evidence

Across the displayed sample, Magdeburg are 3-0-2 with a 0 goal difference; Kiel are 1-2-2 with a -1 goal difference.

Top five scorelines

1–111%

1–29.1%

2–17.4%

2–26.6%

0–26.2%

Recent form

Team	Last five	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA
Magdeburg		5	3	0	2	8	8
Kiel		5	1	2	2	8	9

Published model snapshot

This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.

Training cutoff: Aug 9, 2026
Training matches: 315 · Magdeburg 18 · Kiel 18
Data quality: Full model sample

dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation