1. FC Nürnberg vs DSC Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Nürnberg
18:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
DSC Arminia Bielefeld
57%25%18%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.77 – 0.90
Both teams score
Yes50.2%
No49.8%
Total goals
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw82%
Draw or away42.9%
Probability margin
Probability margin32.1%
Non-leading outcomes42.9%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Nürnberg 18 · Bielefeld 18
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 57.1%, 32.1% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.77 goals for Nürnberg and 0.90 for Bielefeld.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Nürnberg are 3-2-0 with a +8 goal difference; Bielefeld are 2-1-2 with a +5 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nürnberg | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | |
| Bielefeld | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation