1. FC Nürnberg vs Hannover 96
1. FC Nürnberg
16:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Hannover 96
37%27%35%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.42 – 1.38
Both teams score
Yes57.7%
No42.3%
Total goals
Over 2.553.1%
Under 2.546.9%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw64.7%
Draw or away62.5%
Probability margin
Probability margin2.1%
Non-leading outcomes62.5%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 324 · Nürnberg 18 · Hannover 18
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 37.5%, 2.1% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.42 goals for Nürnberg and 1.38 for Hannover.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Nürnberg are 3-2-0 with a +8 goal difference; Hannover are 1-2-2 with a -2 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nürnberg | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 8 | |
| Hannover | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation