1. FC Saarbrücken vs FC Ingolstadt 04
1. FC Saarbrücken
12:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
FC Ingolstadt 04
37%27%37%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.46 – 1.45
Both teams score
Yes59.6%
No40.4%
Total goals
Over 2.555.5%
Under 2.544.5%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw63.5%
Draw or away63.1%
Probability margin
Probability margin0.4%
Non-leading outcomes63.1%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 400 · Saarbrücken 20 · Ingolstadt 20
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 36.9%, 0.4% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.46 goals for Saarbrücken and 1.45 for Ingolstadt.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Saarbrücken are 3-0-2 with a +6 goal difference; Ingolstadt are 2-2-1 with a +3 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saarbrücken | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | |
| Ingolstadt | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation