1. FC Saarbrücken vs Hansa Rostock
1. FC Saarbrücken
11:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Hansa Rostock
28%28%44%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.13 – 1.48
Both teams score
Yes53.3%
No46.7%
Total goals
Over 2.548.4%
Under 2.551.6%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw55.7%
Draw or away72.1%
Probability margin
Probability margin16.5%
Non-leading outcomes55.7%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 390 · Saarbrücken 20 · Rostock 20
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 44.3%, 16.5% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.13 goals for Saarbrücken and 1.48 for Rostock.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Saarbrücken are 3-0-2 with a +4 goal difference; Rostock are 3-2-0 with a +4 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saarbrücken | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 9 | |
| Rostock | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 12 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation