1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
1. FC Union Berlin
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Borussia Dortmund
20%24%56%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.08 – 1.94
Both teams score
Yes57.3%
No42.7%
Total goals
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw43.5%
Draw or away80%
Probability margin
Probability margin32.9%
Non-leading outcomes43.5%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 342 · Union Berlin 19 · Dortmund 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 56.5%, 32.9% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.08 goals for Union Berlin and 1.94 for Dortmund.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Union Berlin are 1-1-3 with a -9 goal difference; Dortmund are 5-0-0 with a +9 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 17 | |
| Dortmund | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation