1. FC Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt
1. FC Union Berlin
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Eintracht Frankfurt
40%23%38%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.90 – 1.85
Both teams score
Yes72.4%
No27.6%
Total goals
Over 2.572.4%
Under 2.527.6%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw62.3%
Draw or away60.4%
Probability margin
Probability margin1.9%
Non-leading outcomes60.4%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Union Berlin 17 · Frankfurt 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 39.6%, 1.9% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.90 goals for Union Berlin and 1.85 for Frankfurt.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Union Berlin are 2-1-2 with a +3 goal difference; Frankfurt are 0-2-3 with a -4 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | |
| Frankfurt | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation