1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1. FSV Mainz 05
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
27%25%48%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.24 – 1.73
Both teams score
Yes59.4%
No40.6%
Total goals
Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw52%
Draw or away73.4%
Probability margin
Probability margin21.4%
Non-leading outcomes52%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 339 · Mainz 19 · Leverkusen 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 48%, 21.4% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.24 goals for Mainz and 1.73 for Leverkusen.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Mainz are 3-1-1 with a +6 goal difference; Leverkusen are 2-2-1 with a +5 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | |
| Leverkusen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation