1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
1. FSV Mainz 05
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Eintracht Frankfurt
35%24%42%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.63 – 1.80
Both teams score
Yes67.8%
No32.2%
Total goals
Over 2.566.5%
Under 2.533.5%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw58.5%
Draw or away65.5%
Probability margin
Probability margin7%
Non-leading outcomes58.5%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Mainz 17 · Frankfurt 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 41.5%, 7% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.63 goals for Mainz and 1.80 for Frankfurt.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Mainz are 3-1-1 with a +6 goal difference; Frankfurt are 0-2-3 with a -5 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | |
| Frankfurt | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation