Alemannia Aachen vs Jahn Regensburg
Alemannia Aachen
14:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Jahn Regensburg
43%24%33%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.81 – 1.56
Both teams score
Yes66.9%
No33.1%
Total goals
Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.5%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw67.3%
Draw or away56.8%
Probability margin
Probability margin10.4%
Non-leading outcomes56.8%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 400 · Aachen 20 · Regensburg 20
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 43.2%, 10.4% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.81 goals for Aachen and 1.56 for Regensburg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Aachen are 3-1-1 with a +8 goal difference; Regensburg are 1-0-4 with a -4 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aachen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | |
| Regensburg | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation