Alemannia Aachen vs Viktoria Köln
Alemannia Aachen
14:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Viktoria Köln
35%26%39%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.45 – 1.54
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Total goals
Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw61.1%
Draw or away65%
Probability margin
Probability margin3.9%
Non-leading outcomes61.1%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 446 · Aachen 23 · Viktoria Köln 22
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 38.9%, 3.9% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.45 goals for Aachen and 1.54 for Viktoria Köln.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Aachen are 2-1-2 with a 0 goal difference; Viktoria Köln are 4-0-1 with a +11 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aachen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | |
| Viktoria Köln | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation