Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Union Berlin
66%20%14%
Likely score2–0
Expected goals2.23 – 0.94
Both teams score
Yes55.2%
No44.8%
Total goals
Over 2.561.4%
Under 2.538.6%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw86.1%
Draw or away34.2%
Probability margin
Probability margin45.5%
Non-leading outcomes34.2%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Leverkusen 17 · Union Berlin 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 65.8%, 45.5% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.23 goals for Leverkusen and 0.94 for Union Berlin.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Leverkusen are 2-1-2 with a +1 goal difference; Union Berlin are 2-2-1 with a +4 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverkusen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | |
| Union Berlin | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 9 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation