Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
RB Leipzig
53%24%24%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.94 – 1.25
Both teams score
Yes61.8%
No38.2%
Total goals
Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw76.4%
Draw or away47.3%
Probability margin
Probability margin29%
Non-leading outcomes47.3%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Leverkusen 17 · Leipzig 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 52.7%, 29% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.94 goals for Leverkusen and 1.25 for Leipzig.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Leverkusen are 1-2-2 with a +1 goal difference; Leipzig are 3-0-2 with a +4 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverkusen | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | |
| Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation