Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
SC Freiburg
69%19%12%
Likely score2–0
Expected goals2.32 – 0.89
Both teams score
Yes53.7%
No46.3%
Total goals
Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw87.9%
Draw or away31.3%
Probability margin
Probability margin49.6%
Non-leading outcomes31.3%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 342 · Leverkusen 19 · Freiburg 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 68.7%, 49.6% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.32 goals for Leverkusen and 0.89 for Freiburg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Leverkusen are 2-2-1 with a +5 goal difference; Freiburg are 4-1-0 with a +12 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leverkusen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 6 | |
| Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 4 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation