Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV
Borussia Dortmund
16:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Hamburger SV
72%18%9%
Likely score2–0
Expected goals2.32 – 0.74
Both teams score
Yes47.6%
No52.4%
Total goals
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw90.5%
Draw or away27.6%
Probability margin
Probability margin54.2%
Non-leading outcomes27.6%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Dortmund 17 · HSV 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 72.4%, 54.2% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.32 goals for Dortmund and 0.74 for HSV.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Dortmund are 3-0-2 with a +5 goal difference; HSV are 2-1-2 with a -1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | |
| HSV | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation