Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
18:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
SV Werder Bremen
70%20%11%
Likely score2–0
Expected goals2.21 – 0.76
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Total goals
Over 2.556.9%
Under 2.543.1%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw89.3%
Draw or away30.2%
Probability margin
Probability margin50.3%
Non-leading outcomes30.2%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 334 · Dortmund 19 · Bremen 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 69.8%, 50.3% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.21 goals for Dortmund and 0.76 for Bremen.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Dortmund are 5-0-0 with a +9 goal difference; Bremen are 2-1-2 with a -2 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dortmund | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | |
| Bremen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation