Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Borussia Mönchengladbach
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FSV Mainz 05
37%27%35%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.40 – 1.35
Both teams score
Yes56.7%
No43.3%
Total goals
Over 2.551.8%
Under 2.548.2%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw64.8%
Draw or away62.6%
Probability margin
Probability margin2.2%
Non-leading outcomes62.6%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Gladbach 17 · Mainz 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 37.4%, 2.2% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.40 goals for Gladbach and 1.35 for Mainz.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Gladbach are 1-0-4 with a -7 goal difference; Mainz are 2-1-2 with a +3 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gladbach | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 15 | |
| Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation