Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim
Borussia Mönchengladbach
15:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
TSG Hoffenheim
35%23%42%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.71 – 1.89
Both teams score
Yes70.2%
No29.8%
Total goals
Over 2.569.7%
Under 2.530.3%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw58%
Draw or away65.3%
Probability margin
Probability margin7.3%
Non-leading outcomes58%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 342 · Gladbach 19 · Hoffenheim 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 42%, 7.3% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.71 goals for Gladbach and 1.89 for Hoffenheim.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Gladbach are 1-0-4 with a -6 goal difference; Hoffenheim are 1-0-4 with a -7 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gladbach | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 16 | |
| Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation