DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs Energie Cottbus
DSC Arminia Bielefeld
11:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Energie Cottbus
52%24%24%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.92 – 1.25
Both teams score
Yes61.7%
No38.3%
Total goals
Over 2.561.4%
Under 2.538.6%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw75.9%
Draw or away47.9%
Probability margin
Probability margin28%
Non-leading outcomes47.9%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Bielefeld 17 · Cottbus 0
- Data quality
- Early model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 52.1%, 28% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.92 goals for Bielefeld and 1.25 for Cottbus.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Bielefeld are 2-1-2 with a +3 goal difference; Cottbus are 1-0-0 with a +2 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 8 | |
| Cottbus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation