Dynamo Dresden vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Dynamo Dresden
11:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Magdeburg
39%25%36%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.65 – 1.59
Both teams score
Yes65.1%
No34.9%
Total goals
Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.2%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw63.8%
Draw or away61.1%
Probability margin
Probability margin2.7%
Non-leading outcomes61.1%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 360 · Dresden 20 · Magdeburg 20
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 38.9%, 2.7% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.65 goals for Dresden and 1.59 for Magdeburg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Dresden are 1-1-3 with a -3 goal difference; Magdeburg are 3-1-1 with a +7 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | |
| Magdeburg | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation