Dynamo Dresden vs Hertha BSC
Dynamo Dresden
18:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Hertha BSC
36%25%39%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.61 – 1.69
Both teams score
Yes66.1%
No33.9%
Total goals
Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw60.5%
Draw or away64.1%
Probability margin
Probability margin3.6%
Non-leading outcomes60.5%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 333 · Dresden 18 · Hertha 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 39.5%, 3.6% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.61 goals for Dresden and 1.69 for Hertha.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Dresden are 1-1-3 with a -5 goal difference; Hertha are 5-0-0 with a +9 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | |
| Hertha | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation