Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98

Dynamo Dresden

11:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff

SV Darmstadt 98

Likely score11
Expected goals1.751.42
Both teams score
Yes63.4%
No36.6%
Total goals
Over 2.561.3%
Under 2.538.7%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw69.4%
Draw or away55.5%
Probability margin
Probability margin13.9%
Non-leading outcomes55.5%
Published
Training cutoff
Training matches
315 · Dresden 17 · Darmstadt 17
Data quality
Full model sample · Moderate separation

Why the home win is largest

Outcome separation

The leading outcome is Home win at 44.5%, 13.9% ahead of the next outcome.

Expected-goal balance

The model projects 1.75 goals for Dresden and 1.42 for Darmstadt.

Recent evidence

Across the displayed sample, Dresden are 2-0-3 with a -4 goal difference; Darmstadt are 0-3-2 with a -3 goal difference.

Top five scorelines

1111.3%
219.1%
127.4%
106.5%
226.5%

Recent form

TeamLast fiveMPWDLGFGA
Dresden520359
Darmstadt5032710

Published model snapshot

This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.

Training cutoff
Training matches
315 · Dresden 17 · Darmstadt 17
Data quality
Full model sample
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation