Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98
Dynamo Dresden
11:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
SV Darmstadt 98
44%25%31%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.75 – 1.42
Both teams score
Yes63.4%
No36.6%
Total goals
Over 2.561.3%
Under 2.538.7%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw69.4%
Draw or away55.5%
Probability margin
Probability margin13.9%
Non-leading outcomes55.5%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Dresden 17 · Darmstadt 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 44.5%, 13.9% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.75 goals for Dresden and 1.42 for Darmstadt.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Dresden are 2-0-3 with a -4 goal difference; Darmstadt are 0-3-2 with a -3 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | |
| Darmstadt | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation