Dynamo Dresden vs VfL Bochum
Dynamo Dresden
18:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
VfL Bochum
47%27%26%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.58 – 1.14
Both teams score
Yes54.9%
No45.1%
Total goals
Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw73.5%
Draw or away53.4%
Probability margin
Probability margin19.7%
Non-leading outcomes53.4%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 321 · Dresden 17 · Bochum 18
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 46.6%, 19.7% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.58 goals for Dresden and 1.14 for Bochum.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Dresden are 2-0-3 with a -4 goal difference; Bochum are 2-1-2 with a 0 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dresden | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | |
| Bochum | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation