Eintracht Braunschweig vs Holstein Kiel
Eintracht Braunschweig
16:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Holstein Kiel
34%27%39%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.36 – 1.49
Both teams score
Yes58.5%
No41.5%
Total goals
Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw60.5%
Draw or away66.3%
Probability margin
Probability margin5.8%
Non-leading outcomes60.5%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 353 · Braunschweig 20 · Kiel 20
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 39.5%, 5.8% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.36 goals for Braunschweig and 1.49 for Kiel.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Braunschweig are 0-1-4 with a -6 goal difference; Kiel are 0-3-2 with a -3 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braunschweig | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | |
| Kiel | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation