Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
18:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Köln
49%24%27%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.87 – 1.36
Both teams score
Yes63.7%
No36.3%
Total goals
Over 2.562.7%
Under 2.537.3%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw72.9%
Draw or away51.3%
Probability margin
Probability margin21.6%
Non-leading outcomes51.3%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 342 · Frankfurt 19 · Köln 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 48.7%, 21.6% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.87 goals for Frankfurt and 1.36 for Köln.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Frankfurt are 1-3-1 with a -1 goal difference; Köln are 1-1-3 with a -7 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 12 | |
| Köln | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation