Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg
Eintracht Frankfurt
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
SC Freiburg
52%24%24%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.91 – 1.24
Both teams score
Yes61.3%
No38.8%
Total goals
Over 2.560.9%
Under 2.539.1%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw76.3%
Draw or away47.6%
Probability margin
Probability margin28.5%
Non-leading outcomes47.6%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Frankfurt 17 · Freiburg 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 52.4%, 28.5% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.91 goals for Frankfurt and 1.24 for Freiburg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Frankfurt are 1-2-2 with a -2 goal difference; Freiburg are 4-0-1 with a +11 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 13 | |
| Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation