FC Augsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Augsburg
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
29%24%47%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.45 – 1.86
Both teams score
Yes65.5%
No34.5%
Total goals
Over 2.564.4%
Under 2.535.6%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw53.4%
Draw or away70.6%
Probability margin
Probability margin17.2%
Non-leading outcomes53.4%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Augsburg 17 · Leverkusen 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 46.6%, 17.2% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.45 goals for Augsburg and 1.86 for Leverkusen.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Augsburg are 4-0-1 with a +6 goal difference; Leverkusen are 2-1-2 with a +4 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | |
| Leverkusen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation