FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München
FC Augsburg
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
FC Bayern München
10%16%74%
Likely score1–2
Expected goals1.00 – 2.80
Both teams score
Yes60.1%
No40%
Total goals
Over 2.573.2%
Under 2.526.8%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw25.9%
Draw or away89.7%
Probability margin
Probability margin58.6%
Non-leading outcomes25.9%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 339 · Augsburg 19 · Bayern 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 74.1%, 58.6% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.00 goals for Augsburg and 2.80 for Bayern.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Augsburg are 2-1-2 with a +1 goal difference; Bayern are 4-1-0 with a +16 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | |
| Bayern | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 3 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation