FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Union Berlin
FC Bayern München
18:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Union Berlin
85%9%5%
Likely score3–0
Expected goals3.68 – 0.94
Both teams score
Yes59.6%
No40.4%
Total goals
Over 2.583.7%
Under 2.516.3%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw94.8%
Draw or away14.6%
Probability margin
Probability margin76%
Non-leading outcomes14.6%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Bayern 18 · Union Berlin 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 85.4%, 76% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 3.68 goals for Bayern and 0.94 for Union Berlin.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Bayern are 4-1-0 with a +10 goal difference; Union Berlin are 2-1-2 with a 0 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | |
| Union Berlin | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation