FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig
FC Bayern München
16:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
RB Leipzig
81%12%8%
Likely score3–1
Expected goals3.46 – 1.12
Both teams score
Yes65.4%
No34.6%
Total goals
Over 2.583.4%
Under 2.516.6%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw92.2%
Draw or away19.5%
Probability margin
Probability margin68.8%
Non-leading outcomes19.5%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 342 · Bayern 19 · Leipzig 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 80.5%, 68.8% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 3.46 goals for Bayern and 1.12 for Leipzig.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Bayern are 4-1-0 with a +16 goal difference; Leipzig are 2-0-3 with a +1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 3 | |
| Leipzig | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 9 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation