FC Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart
FC Bayern München
18:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
VfB Stuttgart
72%13%14%
Likely score3–1
Expected goals3.74 – 1.80
Both teams score
Yes81.7%
No18.3%
Total goals
Over 2.591.3%
Under 2.58.7%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw85.7%
Draw or away27.6%
Probability margin
Probability margin58.1%
Non-leading outcomes27.6%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Bayern 17 · Stuttgart 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 72.4%, 58.1% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 3.74 goals for Bayern and 1.80 for Stuttgart.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Bayern are 4-1-0 with a +8 goal difference; Stuttgart are 1-3-1 with a 0 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 9 | |
| Stuttgart | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 11 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation