FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Alemannia Aachen
FC Ingolstadt 04
17:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Alemannia Aachen
25%22%53%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.41 – 2.11
Both teams score
Yes67.1%
No32.9%
Total goals
Over 2.568.3%
Under 2.531.7%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw47.1%
Draw or away75.3%
Probability margin
Probability margin28.2%
Non-leading outcomes47.1%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 391 · Ingolstadt 20 · Aachen 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 52.9%, 28.2% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.41 goals for Ingolstadt and 2.11 for Aachen.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Ingolstadt are 2-2-1 with a +3 goal difference; Aachen are 3-2-0 with a +11 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 | |
| Aachen | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 4 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation