FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Rot-Weiss Essen
FC Ingolstadt 04
12:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Rot-Weiss Essen
38%22%40%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.97 – 2.04
Both teams score
Yes75.4%
No24.6%
Total goals
Over 2.576.3%
Under 2.523.7%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw59.7%
Draw or away62.1%
Probability margin
Probability margin2.4%
Non-leading outcomes59.7%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 450 · Ingolstadt 22 · Rot-Weiss Essen 22
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 40.3%, 2.4% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.97 goals for Ingolstadt and 2.04 for Rot-Weiss Essen.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Ingolstadt are 2-0-3 with a -4 goal difference; Rot-Weiss Essen are 3-2-0 with a +6 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | |
| Rot-Weiss Essen | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation