FC Ingolstadt 04 vs SV Wehen Wiesbaden
FC Ingolstadt 04
11:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
SV Wehen Wiesbaden
43%30%28%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.33 – 1.03
Both teams score
Yes48.3%
No51.7%
Total goals
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw72.2%
Draw or away57.4%
Probability margin
Probability margin13%
Non-leading outcomes57.4%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 446 · Ingolstadt 22 · Wiesbaden 22
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 42.6%, 13% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.33 goals for Ingolstadt and 1.03 for Wiesbaden.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Ingolstadt are 2-0-3 with a -4 goal difference; Wiesbaden are 1-2-2 with a -2 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | |
| Wiesbaden | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation