FC Ingolstadt 04 vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
FC Ingolstadt 04
17:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
38%23%39%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.77 – 1.81
Both teams score
Yes70.2%
No29.8%
Total goals
Over 2.569.5%
Under 2.530.5%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw60.9%
Draw or away62.5%
Probability margin
Probability margin1.5%
Non-leading outcomes60.9%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 400 · Ingolstadt 20 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 20
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 39.1%, 1.5% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.77 goals for Ingolstadt and 1.81 for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Ingolstadt are 2-2-1 with a 0 goal difference; TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II are 2-1-2 with a +4 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation