Fortuna Düsseldorf vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
Fortuna Düsseldorf
12:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
43%23%34%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.95 – 1.72
Both teams score
Yes71.2%
No28.9%
Total goals
Over 2.571%
Under 2.529%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw66.1%
Draw or away56.9%
Probability margin
Probability margin9.2%
Non-leading outcomes56.9%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 390 · Düsseldorf 0 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 19
- Data quality
- Early model sample · Low separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 43.2%, 9.2% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.95 goals for Düsseldorf and 1.72 for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Düsseldorf are 0-0-1 with a -1 goal difference; TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II are 1-0-4 with a -6 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Düsseldorf | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation