Fortuna Köln vs Alemannia Aachen
Fortuna Köln
12:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Alemannia Aachen
28%23%49%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.49 – 2.01
Both teams score
Yes67.9%
No32.1%
Total goals
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw51%
Draw or away72%
Probability margin
Probability margin21.1%
Non-leading outcomes51%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 390 · Fortuna Köln 0 · Aachen 19
- Data quality
- Early model sample · Moderate separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 49%, 21.1% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.49 goals for Fortuna Köln and 2.01 for Aachen.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Fortuna Köln are 0-0-1 with a -1 goal difference; Aachen are 4-1-0 with a +13 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Köln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Aachen | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 4 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation