Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln
Hamburger SV
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Köln
49%26%25%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.64 – 1.10
Both teams score
Yes54.5%
No45.5%
Total goals
Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw75.4%
Draw or away51%
Probability margin
Probability margin22.5%
Non-leading outcomes51%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · HSV 17 · Köln 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 49%, 22.5% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.64 goals for HSV and 1.10 for Köln.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, HSV are 1-1-3 with a -11 goal difference; Köln are 1-1-3 with a -8 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSV | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 15 | |
| Köln | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation