Hamburger SV vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Hamburger SV
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FSV Mainz 05
41%28%32%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.45 – 1.26
Both teams score
Yes55.8%
No44.2%
Total goals
Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw68.3%
Draw or away59.3%
Probability margin
Probability margin9%
Non-leading outcomes59.3%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · HSV 17 · Mainz 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 40.7%, 9% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.45 goals for HSV and 1.26 for Mainz.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, HSV are 2-1-2 with a -1 goal difference; Mainz are 2-1-2 with a 0 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSV | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | |
| Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation