Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
VfB Stuttgart
30%22%48%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.68 – 2.12
Both teams score
Yes72.2%
No27.8%
Total goals
Over 2.573.1%
Under 2.527%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw52.5%
Draw or away69.7%
Probability margin
Probability margin17.2%
Non-leading outcomes52.5%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 342 · HSV 19 · Stuttgart 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 47.5%, 17.2% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.68 goals for HSV and 2.12 for Stuttgart.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, HSV are 1-1-3 with a -11 goal difference; Stuttgart are 1-1-3 with a -3 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSV | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 14 | |
| Stuttgart | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation