Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
Hertha BSC
11:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
34%31%35%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.10 – 1.12
Both teams score
Yes45.9%
No54.1%
Total goals
Over 2.538.1%
Under 2.561.9%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw65.1%
Draw or away66%
Probability margin
Probability margin0.9%
Non-leading outcomes65.1%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Hertha 17 · Heidenheim 0
- Data quality
- Early model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 34.9%, 0.9% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.10 goals for Hertha and 1.12 for Heidenheim.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Hertha are 2-0-3 with a -5 goal difference; Heidenheim are 1-0-0 with a +1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | |
| Heidenheim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation