Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg
Hertha BSC
11:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Magdeburg
32%28%40%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.25 – 1.42
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Total goals
Over 2.549.8%
Under 2.550.2%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw59.9%
Draw or away67.9%
Probability margin
Probability margin8%
Non-leading outcomes59.9%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 324 · Hertha 18 · Magdeburg 18
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 40.1%, 8% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.25 goals for Hertha and 1.42 for Magdeburg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Hertha are 4-0-1 with a +2 goal difference; Magdeburg are 3-0-2 with a +1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 11 | |
| Magdeburg | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation