Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Probability & Forecast

Hertha BSC

11:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

44%27%28%

Likely score1–1

Expected goals1.54 – 1.19

Both teams score

Yes55.5%

No44.6%

Total goals

Over 2.551.2%

Under 2.548.8%

Two-outcome combinations

Home or draw71.6%

Draw or away55.5%

Probability margin

Probability margin16.1%

Non-leading outcomes55.5%

Published: Sep 21, 2026, 8:01 AM UTC
Training cutoff: Sep 20, 2026
Training matches: 360 · Hertha 19 · Fürth 20
Data quality: Full model sample · Moderate separation

Why the home win is largest

Outcome separation

The leading outcome is Home win at 44.5%, 16.1% ahead of the next outcome.

Expected-goal balance

The model projects 1.54 goals for Hertha and 1.19 for Fürth.

Recent evidence

Across the displayed sample, Hertha are 5-0-0 with a +9 goal difference; Fürth are 1-2-2 with a -2 goal difference.

Top five scorelines

1–112.9%

2–19.2%

1–09.2%

2–07.8%

0–07.5%

Recent form

Team	Last five	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA
Hertha		5	5	0	0	16	7
Fürth		5	1	2	2	8	10

Published model snapshot

This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.

Training cutoff: Sep 20, 2026
Training matches: 360 · Hertha 19 · Fürth 20
Data quality: Full model sample

dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation