Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Holstein Kiel
11:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Nürnberg
41%28%31%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.42 – 1.21
Both teams score
Yes54.2%
No45.8%
Total goals
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551.1%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw69%
Draw or away59%
Probability margin
Probability margin10%
Non-leading outcomes59%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 321 · Kiel 18 · Nürnberg 18
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 41%, 10% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.42 goals for Kiel and 1.21 for Nürnberg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Kiel are 0-2-3 with a -5 goal difference; Nürnberg are 4-1-0 with a +11 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiel | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | |
| Nürnberg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 6 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation